Is it a buyer's market or a seller's market right now?

The quick way to tell who has the upper hand

Everyone at a barbecue has an opinion on this. The uncle who bought in 1994 says it's a seller's market. The cousin who has been house hunting for a year says it's a buyer's market. They could both be right, about different houses.

The cleanest single measure is months of supply. Redfin defines it as the number of months it would take to sell every current listing at the current pace of sales, if no new listings came on. You get it by dividing inventory by sales.

• Higher months of supply means more homes than buyers can absorb quickly. That leans toward a buyer's market.
• Lower months of supply means homes get snapped up. That leans toward a seller's market.

Here is a hypothetical. Say your neighborhood has 30 homes for sale and 10 sell each month. That is three months of supply. If sales slow to 5 a month with the same 30 listings, you are at six months. Same houses, very different negotiation.

What the national numbers said in September 2026

NAR's report for September 2026, released in October, showed:

• Months of supply: 4.8, unchanged from August and up from 4.5 a year earlier
• Inventory: 1.60 million homes, up 4.6% from a year earlier
• Median existing-home price: $417,500, up 1.3% year over year, the 39th straight month of year-over-year gains
• Sales: up 1.5% from August, down 2.2% from a year earlier

NAR's chief economist, Lawrence Yun, said higher inventory and lengthening days on market give buyers improved negotiating power, and that sellers need to be realistic about local conditions.

As of that report, prices were still inching up nationally, but buyers had more choices and more time. That is not a crash. It is a market where the house that is priced right sells, and the house priced on wishful thinking gets a lot of foot traffic and very few offers.

Why the national answer may be wrong for your street

National numbers blend thousands of markets. Redfin's February 2026 data shows how far apart they can be. Among the 50 most populous metros, 57.9% of sellers in San Antonio cut their price. In San Francisco, it was 7.4%. San Jose was 11.1% and Oakland 14.3%.

That is not a small difference. That is two different planets.

Even inside one metro, the answer changes by price range and property type. Entry-level homes might be getting multiple offers while the large homes on the hill sit. Condos and single-family homes can move in opposite directions in the same zip code.

This is why I never answer "what kind of market is it?" with one word. I answer it for a specific type of home, in a specific area, over the most recent window the data supports. If the last 45 days look different from the last 12 months, I want to know that. Your buyer is shopping this month, not the yearly average.

Pending sales are the earliest clue. A closed sale reflects a contract signed weeks earlier. If pendings in a segment drop off while listings pile up, the closed sales will show the shift a month or two later. By the time the headline catches up, the buyers who were paying attention already knew.

How to check your own market in 20 minutes

1. Pick your segment. Same area, similar size, similar type. A two-bedroom condo and a five-bedroom house are different markets.
2. Count active listings in that segment today.
3. Count closed sales in the same segment over the last few months and get a monthly average.
4. Divide listings by monthly sales. That is your months of supply.
5. Check price cuts. What share of current listings have reduced their price?
6. Check sale-to-list ratios on recent sales. Are homes closing above, at or below asking?
7. Check how fast homes go pending. A weekend tells a different story than three months.

Then look at the trend, not one snapshot. Is supply rising or falling compared to a few months ago? A market at four months of supply and falling feels different from one at four months and rising.

Your agent can pull these numbers from the MLS. If they can't explain what the numbers mean for your house in particular, that is a conversation worth having before you sign anything.

What it means if you are buying or selling

If you are selling in a market tilting toward buyers, price from the most recent sales and the listings you are competing against. Expect buyers to ask for repairs or credits. Remember that a seller credit is not worth dollar for dollar in value. What it does to price has to be measured from what the market actually did.

If you are buying, more supply gives you time to compare and room to negotiate. It does not mean every seller will cut. The well-priced homes in good condition still move.

In either case, know that the appraiser will look at the same evidence. If the market shifted in the last few months, a good appraisal should show it with real sales, pendings and listings, not a rule of thumb. Facts over feelings works for both sides of the table.

One more thing. A buyer's market does not lower every house equally, and a seller's market does not lift every house equally. The homes that need work usually feel a slowdown first, because buyers with choices skip the project house. The updated homes in good locations hold up longest. Condition carries more weight when buyers have options.